The New Normal and the Paradigmatic Design Problem

I don’t give a damn what your opinion is about Global Warming. But what I do care about is that we have facts on the table so that we can have an intelligent discussion. Only then can you decide what you are going to do.
·    Fact: 15 or the last 16 years have been the warmest in recorded instrumentation history. Significance: Not much more than a sensationalist headline.
·    Fact: What is significant is that polar ice studies indicate that over the last 500,000 years there have been cyclical greenhouse gas emissions in roughly 100,000 year increments. We are at a standard upper peak.
·    Fact: Natural CO2 emissions are due to what the oceans, volcanoes and animals emit.
·    Fact: There is a direct one-to-one relationship between CO2 content, global temperature and ice volume.
·    Fact: The high range for CO2 atmospheric concentration is between 280 – 300 ppmv over the last half million years.
·    Fact: Due to man-made activities, we have been climbing rapidly above that upper natural threshold since 1750 to where we have now reached close to 380 ppmv (over a 30% increase). And still climbing at an increasing rate.
Now what’s your opinion?

We have created the New Normal, the condition that will not only have consequences in your child’s lifetime, but likely for centuries – even if we stopped increasing our emissions now. So let’s add some more facts:
·    Fact: At present, US citizens are responsible for 25% of all emissions in the world; we will increase our amount from 5.6 tonnes of carbon per person to 6.7 by 2020 at our current rate.
·    Fact: Chinese citizens are now up to 2.1 tonnes per person. They will equal us by 2020. Their primary method to increase energy production will result in the construction of hundreds of coal burning power plants.
·    Fact: The Big Three of man-made Greenhouse Gas Emissions are Transportation, Industry and Buildings. And guess what? Buildings are responsible for 48%. That’s right, nearly equal to transportation and industrial processes combined.
Feeling helpless yet?

Leadership starts right here, right now. What we have is the Paradigmatic Design Problem of the ages. And you are central to this new future. Any construction activity that you commit to (from replacing the carpet in your office to that new $200 million factory) has a direct 1:1 impact upon your future and your legacy.

Cincinnati AIA Architects are at the center of recreating your future. But before you start thinking that we are that proverbial 10 years behind, let me share a few more facts:
·    Fact: Cincinnati AIA had one of the first Committees On The Environment in the nation.
·    Fact: Cincinnati Public Schools was the first school district in the state to adopt green building design guidelines.
·    Fact: Cincinnati had the first US Green Building Council in the tri-state region.
·    Fact: Cincinnati had the first USGBC LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) Silver and Gold buildings in the state.
·    Fact: Cincinnati was the first city in Ohio to pass a LEED Ordinance that will both promote urban development and healthy living.

Cincinnati AIA Architects are among the most well equipped to have that intelligent discussion and lead you to a future of restorative architecture that is economically viable and resets our role in providing equitable places to live and work. And that, that we do give a damn about!



Alan J. Warner, AIA is a LEED Accredited Professional and is the Principal-in-Charge of Sustainability at GBBN Architects. Alan is the Chair and Founder of AIA Ohio Committee On The Environment and was a representative for the US Department of Commerce/USGBC 1st Trade Mission to China.